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Hedge funds flipped bearish on yen ahead of upper house election

July 21, 2025 at 11:39 am

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Hedge funds have net bearish on the Japanese yen for the first time in nearly four months, ahead of a Sunday's upper house election, which saw Japan's ruling coalition lose its majority, according to a report by Bloomberg citing data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

CFTC figures for the week ending 15 July showed that speculative traders in currency derivatives held about $1.1bn in net short positions on the yen — approximately 12,600 contracts — marking the first negative positioning since late March and signalling growing investor anxiety over Japan’s political and fiscal outlook.

The reversal comes amid a slide in the yen, which has weakened 3% in July, erasing part of its double-digit gain from earlier this year. Hedge fund strategists are watching closely as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) risks further political erosion.